The research also identifies high levels of under-occupancy, with more than 12,443 people aged 66 and over residing in homes larger than necessary (two or more bedrooms unoccupied). If this trend continues, more than 18,929 65+ households are expected to be under-occupied by 2040.
In close proximity to several major universities, Stratford-upon-Avon’s student-age population is projected to grow by 12% to nearly 5,717 people in 2040. Furthermore, its social housing stock is estimated to have plummeted by 1,116 despite 5,740 people being listed on their local authority’s housing register in 2023.
Sandra Ford, planning director at Marrons in Stratford-upon-Avon, said: “Even though Stratford is smaller in size than some of its West Midlands neighbours, we still seeing similar pressures on our local housing market. Over 10,000 new homes are needed by 2040 and these must reflect the needs of the population – we can’t just cater for the first-time buyer market, or the later living market in isolation.
“Building a range of homes to suit many different needs is not only a priority but a necessity. It creates more choice, aids first-time buyers onto the property ladder, gives expanding families additional space; helps the ageing population downsize and live in homes more suitable for their needs, and adds to the supply of affordable housing.”
Across the other 13 West Midlands local authorities, Coventry is forecast to see the greatest surge in its student-age population (32%) and the largest uptick in its first-time buyer demographic (39%). Shropshire is anticipated to witness the most substantial increase in those aged 66 and over, with a projected rise of 48% by 2040.
Utilising the latest Office for National Statistics Census data (2021) and 2018-based population projections, Marrons has painted a clear picture of England’s housing needs in 2040. Supplementing this is data from local authority housing registers, affordable housing stock records and extrapolated housing requirement figures using the government’s standard method.
Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “England is poised for significant demographic change over the next two decades, bringing forth new challenges and opportunities in the housing sector.
“In examining the data, it becomes evident there is a significant need for general market homes to accommodate the growing population. As well as meeting this basic need, more could be done to provide greater choice and acknowledge the positive impact of specialist and affordable homes as part of a functioning housing market, much of which can be facilitated through market-led development at scale.
“Already, England has been named as the most difficult place to find a home in the developed world, and our ageing population and rising property prices will only exacerbate the problem. If we are going to meet the requirements of the population in 2040, we need to prioritise future residents and start building the right homes today.”
